The Champions League returns to Paramount+ this week after a 3.5-month hiatus. While I always look forward to the Champions League knockout rounds, this year's tournament has an added layer of intrigue. It's not just the long break caused by the World Cup; some of the big-name clubs we're used to seeing make this stage of the tournament aren't having the best years at home.
Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all outside the Premier League's top four. AC Milan and Inter have little chance of winning Serie A and will instead have to fight for a top-four finish. Real Madrid is Real Madrid, but a La Liga title appears to be out of reach for them this year as well.
Things could get out of hand when you combine the lack of a clearly elite team with the number of teams that will prioritize the Champions League over their domestic leagues. With Napoli as a wild card, this could be one of the most surprising Champions League tournaments in recent memory.
The action begins on Tuesday, and Corner Picks has a selection for each of this week's matches. Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds.
PSG vs. Bayern Munich
This is the main event of the eight quarterfinal matches. The first-place team in France, led by Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Neymar, will face the German powerhouse and six-time Champions League/European Cup winner Bayern Munich. I'm not sure how much of PSG's star power will be available for this match.
We took Monaco against PSG over the weekend because PSG was missing Messi and Mbappe. Both will be on the team on Tuesday, but we don't know if either will start or how long they'll be available to play, if at all. Because of these injuries, PSG has lost two straight, while Bayern hasn't lost since September 17. Going to Les Parc de Princes will not be easy.
AC Milan vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Right now, figuring out these teams is nearly impossible. Tottenham wins 1-0 against Manchester City one minute, then loses 4-1 to Leicester after blowing an early 1-0 lead. Then there's AC Milan, who have been awful since returning from the World Cup break but finally got a win over Torino over the weekend.
While I believe there is some value on Milan winning, I don't believe there is enough to bet on. According to my observations, the better value is on the total because the primary reason these teams have struggled recently has been defense. Milan has struggled to contain strong teams, and Tottenham has looked shaky against everyone (the 1-0 win over City was a touch "lucky"). Be prepared to see blown.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea
Chelsea spent approximately eleventy billion dollars in January, and it turns out that dollars spent do not directly correlate with points earned. Chelsea has won only one of its eight matches in all competitions since the window opened on January 1. It has drawn its last three games and has only scored four goals in those eight games.
Meanwhile, Dortmund has won six consecutive games, so they're the obvious pick, right? They're doing well at home against a struggling Chelsea team. But that's exactly why I'm stumbling. I'm wary of Bundesliga teams that aren't Bayern Munich in the Champions League because they never seem to be defensively strong enough. This isn't to say that Dortmund can't win this game (they absolutely can), but there's been a little too much hype.
Club Brugge vs. Benfica
There's no doubt about who the competition's remaining underdog is. Club Brugge is not only the only club from outside Europe's top six leagues still in the tournament, but they are also not in first place in Belgium's Jupiler Pro League. They are fourth in the table, 20 points behind Genk. They performed well in their group, earning four points against Atlético Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen (as well as a 4-0 win over Porto).
However, I fully expect Brugge to stop here. Benfica leads Portugal's domestic league and has only lost one match this season, a 3-0 defeat to Braga on December 30. Benfica defeated PSG and Juventus in their Champions League group. They belong to a specific group.
