Every NFL team will have one breakout player by 2023.
There are also numerous household names on this list who are eager to begin their careers.
With training camps beginning this week and next, the 2023 NFL season is nearly among us. Because it's finally here, we have to start thinking about what will actually happen on the field, rather than just the theory of what clubs can be following their numerous deals, signings, and draft picks.
With that in mind, we're scouring the league for the most likely breakout talent for each of the 32 teams. Let's get started.
Arizona Cardinals: Isaiah Simmons
After three years of playing Simmons out of position at linebacker, the Cardinals are returning him to his natural position as a playmaker in the slot. When he was at Clemson, he was able to create havoc on opposition attacks by moving all over the formation. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have a history of not getting the most out of versatile playmakers until it's seemingly too late (as with Haason Reddick); hopefully, this is not the case with Simmons.
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts
Picking Pitts as a potential breakout player feels strange, but given how last season went, it makes sense. He followed up a 1,026-yard rookie season with an injury-plagued sophomore season in which he caught just 28 of 59 receptions for 356 yards and two touchdowns. But take a closer look: Pitts was targeted on 28% of his routes, which ranked 12th out of 334 players who ran at least four routes per game. According to Tru Media, Marcus Mariota placed second in the NFL in off-target pass rate (17.7%), trailing only Zach Wilson. Desmond Ridder being similarly incorrect would be nearly impossible, therefore Pitts has a shot.
Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman
Due to injury concerns, Bateman has only played in 18 of 34 possible games in his two NFL seasons, totaling 61 receptions for 800 yards and three touchdowns. These are famous last words, but he has a chance to burst as Lamar Jackson's No. 1 receiver in new offensive coach Todd Monken's offense if he can remain healthy.
Buffalo Bills: Greg Rousseau
Rousseau had a strong start to last season, but a midseason injury, followed by Von Miller's season-ending injury, hampered his output down the road. Despite this, he concluded the season generating pressure on 15.2% of his pass-rush snaps, ranking 13th among 143 players who rushed 250 or more times. With a full season of rushing across from Miller and both remaining healthy, Rousseau appears to be a lock for his first double-digit sack season.
Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown
According to Pro Football Focus, Brown was tied for eighth in the NFL in run stops last season and third among interior defenders in run defense grade. (Only Dexter Lawrence and Chris Jones completed the race ahead of him.) With Ejiro Evero coming in to coordinate the Panthers defense, it appears that several players will be able to advance. Brown possesses tremendous talent and has the potential to become even more disruptive.
Chicago Bears: Jaquan Brisker
Brisker demonstrated versatility as a rookie, playing 371 snaps in the box, 289 as a deep safety, 150 on the defensive line, 100 in the slot, and 43 as a wide cornerback, according to PFF. If he can reduce the missed tackles that plagued him at times last season (14.7% missed tackle rate), he has the potential to be a highly dynamic, multi-level safety for a Bears defense in desperate need of playmakers.
Cincinnati Bengals: Daxton Hill
Hill must make a significant improvement for the Bengals. Cincinnati will rely on Hill and Nick Scott after losing both Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell in free agency. With Lou Anarumo at the helm of the defense once more, we know Hill will be set up for success. He possesses the athleticism and ball skills required to make plays.
Cleveland Browns: Elijah Moore
Moore was dropped by the Jets last season and finished with a 37-446-1 receiving line. Now that he's in a position to be one of the clear top passing-game options, he should be able to tap into what makes him such a dynamic player. Cleveland should line him up in the slot more frequently than he did in New York (39% of routes) and allow him to create in open space. Moore could be in a better position to make opponents pay than ever before, thanks to improved quarterback performance compared to his time with the Jets.
Dallas Cowboys: Sam Williams
Williams' involvement was restricted last season due to the Cowboys' abundance of pass-rushing threats. He only played 27% of the team's snaps, but he had four sacks and 22 pressures. His 13.9% pressure rate ranks 26th out of 221 players who rushed the passer at least 150 times, one spot ahead of teammate Demarcus Lawrence, according to Tru Media. Williams will wreck some tackles' Sundays if he simply gets more chances to fly off the edge across from Lawrence and Micah Parsons (who finished fourth among the same set of guys).
Denver Broncos: Baron Browning
At 14.2%, Williams is three spots ahead of him on the same ranking. That would be Browning, who found success as a pass rusher despite the Broncos injuring Randy Gregory and later trading Bradley Chubb. Browning also recorded the fifth-fastest time to pressure (2.27 seconds) among that group of players, demonstrating his ability to get off the line swiftly. (Williams finished ninth in 2.30 seconds.)
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams
We were going to use Aidan Hutchinson here, but he already had 9.5 sacks as a rookie despite not producing much pressure (9.9% of pass-rush snaps). Williams will miss the first six games of the season due to a gambling suspension, but when he returns, he should find it relatively easy to ascend the perimeter wide receiver depth chart. With Amon-Ra St. Brown drawing attention below in Ben Johnson's scheme, there is room for a quick deep threat to develop and accumulate a lot of targets. Williams possesses the ability to be that person.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
The Packers must hope that Love is the breakout player. Otherwise, the offensive will be in big difficulty.
Houston Texans: Derek Stingley Jr.
Stingley was overshadowed by rookie cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Tariq Woolen, although he only played nine games and allowed a 67.3% catch rate and 12.5 yards per reception. He didn't allow a touchdown, but he did break up four passes and intercept one. He possesses the size, agility, athleticism, and coverage abilities to be a No. 1 player. We're betting that with DeMeco Ryans as his new head coach, he'll start to prove that this year.
Indianapolis Colts: Julian Blackmon
Blackmon has had an up and down first few NFL seasons, missing 15 games due to injuries. But he's been outstanding in run defense, flying down from the formation's top to make tackles in and around the backfield. With defensive coordinator Gus Bradley remaining under new head coach Shane Steichen, Blackmon should feel more at ease in the system and be able to find his way through pass coverage.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Two of the next three names may appear strange at first, but please believe me on this. Lawrence did, after all, make the Pro Bowl last year. But I believe the step he takes this season will be huge. Throw out the year he spent under Urban Meyer, which hardly counts as a football season, and consider 2022 to be his rookie year. Why can't he be this year's version of a Year 2 breakout QB in his third year? Calvin Ridley's acquisition might propel the offense to new heights and help Lawrence entrench himself as one of the game's best quarterbacks.
Kansas City Chiefs: Kadarius Toney
147 wide receivers have run at least 250 routes in the last two seasons. Only Cooper Kupp (30.0%), Davante Adams (29.9%), Tyreek Hill (29.5%), Drake London (28.0%), and Chris Olave (27.7%) have been targeted more frequently on their routes than Toney (27.6%). Toney will enter the season as Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 wide receiver, having had a full offseason to learn the offense. Look out if he can stay healthy.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Herbert is as physically gifted as any quarterback in the game. He just hasn't been given the opportunity to demonstrate it inside the restrictions of Joe Lombardi's compacted offensive system. Kellen Moore, the new offensive coordinator, and rookie wideout Quentin Johnston join the team. Herbert should now be able to make defenses cover every blade of grass on the field, and if Moore can persuade him to be a little more aggressive, he has the potential to reach far higher levels than he has so far.
Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua
Because this is a team with three stars (Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Matthew Stafford) and not much else, we're going with a late-round rookie receiver whose college numbers were ridiculous. Beyond Kupp, there isn't much competition on the depth chart, with only Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Demarcus Robinson in the way. If Nacua performs as well in training camp as he did in OTAs, he has a chance to open the season in three-receiver sets.
Las Vegas Raiders: Zamir White
With Josh Jacobs expected to be out for the duration of training camp (or longer), White appears to be the most likely replacement in the backfield. Ameer Abdullah is a more complementary, third-down back. White has the height (6-0, 215 pounds) to handle a heavier workload, but it's worth noting that he averaged only 12.2 carries per game and caught only 15 catches in his final two seasons at Georgia. Still, if Jacobs decides to sit out for an extended period of time, he will have the opportunity.
Miami Dolphins: Jaelan Phillips
According to Tru Media, Phillips created pressure in 15.6% of his pass-rush snaps last season, trailing only Josh Uche (more on him later), Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Brandon Graham, Trey Hendrickson, Za'Darius Smith, Myles Garrett, Haason Reddick, Jerry Hughes, and Von Miller. This places him 11th out of 143 players with at least 250 pass-rush snaps. Now he gets to play opposite Bradley Chubb for an entire season in a Vic Fangio-led team that also signed Jalen Ramsey this offseason. Let's go.
Minnesota Vikings: Alexander Mattison
Mattison has only started six games in his career, but he has averaged 23.3 touches for 115.5 total yards per game and five touchdowns. Over the course of a season, that equates to over 2,000 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Even if he only accomplishes 60% of those numbers, it will be a breakthrough season for a player whose career highs are 719 total yards and seven end zone excursions.
New England Patriots: Josh Uche
Uche appeared to break out last year with 11.5 sacks, nearly three times as many as he had in his previous two NFL seasons combined. But he is capable of much more. Uche played only 38% of the defensive snaps for New England. With his league-leading pressure rate, all he needs now are more opportunities on the field to continue racking up quarterback takedowns.
New Orleans Saints: Juwan Johnson
Johnson has been more responsible in the passing game with each passing season. As a rookie, he had four receptions for 39 yards, then 13 for 159 yards and four touchdowns in Year 2. Last season, he improved to 42-508-7 on 65 attempts. His catch rate is increasing while his drop rate is decreasing. He has the ability to extend the field up the seam, and his size makes him an excellent red-zone weapon. Derek Carr enjoys throwing to his tight ends, and Johnson is expected to be a top target this season.
New York Giants: Isaiah Hodgins
New York signed Darren Waller to provide a better passing option for Daniel Jones. However, throughout the last two seasons, Waller has only appeared in 20 of 34 available games. What if he can no longer be relied on to keep healthy? In that situation, Hodgins appears to be the best bet in town. In just eight games with the Giants last season, he had 33 receptions for 351 yards and four touchdowns. If you multiply that by 17 games, you have a 70-746-8.5 receiving line. It would be a huge comeback for a former sixth-round pick who was cut in the middle of last season after largely being on the practice squad before to that.
New York Jets: Breece Hall
Hall was on the verge of becoming a superstar during his rookie season when he suffered a ruptured ACL. After appearing in just 57 snaps in New York's first two games, Hall racked up 67 carries for 390 yards and 12 catches for 170 yards in his final four games. With Aaron Rodgers improving the team's quarterback play, Hall should have a better chance of succeeding than he did last year.
Philadelphia Eagles: Kenneth Gainwell
Yes, Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift this offseason. However, Penny has been injured repeatedly throughout his career, and his contract only includes $600,000 in guaranteed money. Swift, on the other hand, was acquired for a trade of seventh-round picks and a future fifth-round pick two years down the road. Surprisingly, the Eagles have most likely invested more on Gainwell than in either player. And we already know he has the coaching staff's trust based on how he was used last season, particularly in the playoffs. His career highs are only 68 carries and 101 touches, but if everything falls into place, he could easily double that this year. Given his efficiency (especially as a pass-catcher), that would result in a significant increase in production.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren
Najee Harris simply hasn't been efficient enough to justify his responsibilities during his first two years on the job. Despite playing only 31% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps, Warren averaged 4.9 yards per rush and more than two targets per game last season. Warren also had a higher yards after contact per attempt, avoided tackle rate, explosive run rate, negative run rate, and success rate than Harris. If he continues to be the more efficient back than Harris, the Steelers should consider making this a committee backfield.
San Francisco 49ers: Drake Jackson
Jackson has three sacks as a backup rusher last season. With Charles Omenihu currently in Kansas City, he appears to be a lock to start opposite Nick Bosa. The focus on Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Javon Hargrave should provide Jackson with plenty of one-on-one opportunities and matchups against overmatched offensive tackles. With Steve Wilks in charge, he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in the backfield.
Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
It was difficult to come up with a response for the Seahawks. Geno Smith made a name for himself last year. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are already household names. As a rookie, Kenneth Walker III rushed for over 1,000 yards. Tariq Woolen finished second in the voting for Defensive Rookie of the Year. So we're going with JSN, who should step in right away as the slot threat this offense requires to get to the next level. His ability to work in the short and intermediate regions of the field and run routes on the fly gives him a perfect complement to the two incumbent wideouts, and he should be an immediate success.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White
I'm not sure how much I believe this one, but given the structure of Tampa's attack, White appears to be getting a lot of touches. Perhaps he will be able to accomplish more with them than he could a year ago.
Tennessee Titans: Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo concluded his first season with 32 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns, although nearly all of his production came in the second half. Through the Titans' first seven games, he had only five catches for 52 yards and one touchdown. Only Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Evan Engram had more receiving yards than Okonkwo from Week 9 until the end of the season. Okonkwo lead the 48 tight ends who ran 100 or more routes during that time period in yards per route run. Even with DeAndre Hopkins on board and Treylon Burks expected to play a larger role than last year, Okonkwo has plenty of room.
Washington Commanders: Kamren Curl
Curl is well-known among football fans and tape viewers. Last season, he finished as PFF's second-highest-graded safety, as well as one of just three (along with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Kyle Hamilton) to have at least an 80 grade against both the run and the pass. If the Commanders' defense can finally live up to its talent level, he might become more well-known.
