What Scotland and the Netherlands need to do to secure the final World Cup spot in 2023
Zimbabwe's loss on Tuesday, combined with their low net run rate, has eliminated them from contention.
Zimbabwe's 31-run defeat to Scotland means they will not be able to compete in the One-Day International World Cup in India later this year. That's because their net run rate has dropped to -0.099, owing largely to their crushing defeat against Sri Lanka, which they lost with nearly 17 overs to spare.
Zimbabwe was on six points with two games remaining, but they failed to earn the two points needed to qualify. If the Netherlands defeats Scotland on Thursday, all three teams – Zimbabwe, Scotland, and the Netherlands – will have six points.
With the Netherlands' net run rate in the negative but already higher than Zimbabwe's, any win will only improve it further, ensuring that Zimbabwe does not finish in the top two.
As a result, the focus now shifts to the Netherlands-Scotland game and the margins of victory required for those two teams to qualify. Scotland will obviously advance if they win, but even if they lose, they may qualify if the margin of defeat is narrow.
If the Netherlands score 250, Scotland can afford to lose by up to 31 runs in order to maintain their lead in the run rate. If the Netherlands wins by 32 runs or more, their NRR will be higher than Scotland's. If Scotland bats first and scores 250, they will remain ahead on NRR if the Netherlands chase it down in 44.1 overs (depending on how they get their winning runs). If they don't catch it soon, the Netherlands will overtake Scotland's run rate and take the second qualification spot.
